When the smoke clears?

 

Caught myself on very unsetting thought – for over 2 months I’ve been wasting time, energy and money trying to catch a major move, and, in fact, even manor ones, even those that I did manage to capitalize on – did not worth time spent and mental energy drained.

 

Topping or basing – it does not matter, since mid September SPX is up stunning 55 points – slightly more than 5.5% – under traditional 7-8% stop any self respecting trend trader will have in place.

 

Speaking of individual stocks – it has been even more obvious monkey business – look at all short portfolio “opened” on September 14th – as of today’s close it is down whapping 

-0.56% !

 

Counting that it includes few stocks which would have been stopped out long time ago (marked with blue arrow, even based on 10% stop) and in this case, that all short portfolio would be at about  5% gain while $SPX is up 5.5%!

 

 

WHY ARE WE RACING OURSELVES TO DEATH TRYING TO FIND THAT ILLUSIVE INEXISTING TRADE???

 

This is one of the very few real advantages of retail trader – having luxury not to trade when we don’t have to or there is nothing to trade!

Why do we keep running after these small bits and pieces and by the time next big trade will reveal itself we are totally exhausted – mentally and monetary?

 

What is wrong with us?

 

How did we know that there was going to be no “strong directional trade”?

Too many people were waiting for it, market gurus were calling for it, common sense traders were arguing it was unavoidable (what market has to do with “common sense”?) and, most importantly – market is the very last “sealed door” separating existing political system from anger of awakening mob – and it will not be pretty, not this time, so – who would dig the pit for themselves letting market down sharply or consistently?  Forget the dollar - “they” already bought villas in Paraguay and moved gold in safe places, screw the dollar. (not even speaking of monthly SPX TDSetup counts due to complete in January)

 

End of rant.

 

Chart of $VIX – right at support, this week marks possible 13 of buy countdown.

Few observations

New intraday high on (SPY) yesterday was rejected, same for (DIA) – both closed below prior high close, (QQQQ) continues to lag, none of above 3 reset in progress TDSetup Buy counts, all at important trendlines, all “somebody” are on vacation already (I spent day in New York City bar hopping with ole’ friends of mine…those who still has not died from excessive drinking or other not so natural reasons :)

 

I think market will be going lower till the end of November at least and I’ll take it from there…

Am I trying to call direction again???

 

11/25/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1093.25	1105.25
SPX	1096.68	1106.61
/NQ	1772	1790.25
NDX	1773.14	1789.22
/DX	74.875	75.335

 

Quite a day (morning) tomorrow…do we really care?  We decided that market will go down tomorrow – did not we?

 

http://www.forexfactory.com

Gold Digger

“No gold-digging for me... I take diamonds! We may be off the gold standard someday.” - Mae West (If only she could see what's happened since....)

Tuesday mid-session finds most of us grumbling about this chop, chop, fizz, fizz tape, and there's really not much to say, as we all expected as much before the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S. All eyes have been on gold for several weeks now, and gold is only slightly up so far today, but rather than focus on that chart, I'm sharing a chart on GDX, as we may have a potential trade there is if stays true to form and plays within the channel. Oil is also showing some interesting possibilities here, so keep an eye on that chart as well. On the bullish side, the upside target is rather lovely, to say the least, but with inventory report coming out tomorrow, that pattern is tracking the lower channel support and it could still go either way. DDT asked to be reminded to share some DM charts on some Chinese stocks, so while we wait for those, here are the most recent charts on SSEC and HSI, but these are prior to last night's action, where SSEC took a -3.45% haircut, HSI correcting -1.53. Good trading to you into the afternoon session. The treasury auction announcement is at 1:00 PM EST, followed by FOMC note release at 2:00 PM. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes: 8:30 AM Durable Goods, Personal Income and Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment - 9:55, New Home Sales - 10:00, Petroleum Status - 10:30, Nat Gas Status - 12:00 and 7 year Note Auction - 1:00 PM.



























































Groundhog Day or How I spent my last Thanksgiving...

Some days are more boring than others

 

Yes, I know I know – we don’t trade for excitement, we trade for bread (Remember “Knish” from “Rounders”?)

But, no matter what – today was as boring as it gets – with mandatory Monday gap up on yet another Bull[t]urd’s currency bashing in form of proposing of endless MBS buying in “prospering” economy (WhoTF is still listening those MoFo who cannot even lie convincingly?)

 

 

 

Anyhow, just wanted to post few charts to demonstrate that longer term bearish picture has not changed…yet…

weekly ($SPX) holding risk zone of last TDSequential Sell 13

 

Daily ($SPX) under w3/wC target of 1113-1115, under current risk level around 1112, RSI under 60 in spite of up day

 

Lower timeframes do not give too many keys except for consolidation after buy setup on 15 min (weakness into close)

 

But here is the question – is this volume attributed to bottoming process OR issuance of gazillion shares by UUP and therefore buying futures contracts to back it up?

 

11/24/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1097	1118.50
SPX	1100.55	1118.07
/NQ	1777.25	1816.50
NDX	1787.25	1806.24
/DX	74.735	75.545

 

Oh…and I just become Bob Prechter’s friend…not really – just an affiliate (that was easy) and they are giving away Fibonacci E-Book http://tinyurl.com/yhftjpz

Monday Revives the $VOMINX

Have you ever come home to something like this? That's what watching this mornings gap and go felt like if you had any short positions. Ripped to shreds. We have a few posters who are feeling a little green this morning, and I usually consider that a good sign, hence the revival of the $VOMINIX. So, new highs on INDU, but not on the Qs, Spoos or the RUT, nor did the VIX move to new lows. Is there an upside to all of this? Of course there is! As long as we have some weakness in some areas, we have ample trades both short and long, it just takes a little more finesse and fine tuning to churn out some profits, but they're there. So, with that, here is a chart on XLF and IWM for a look at the weak and the weaker. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes: before the bell: ICSG-Goldman Store Sales, Corporate Profits and GDP. 9:00 AM- Case-Shiller HPI, 10:00 AM - Consumer Confidence, 1:00 PM - 5 yr Note Auction, and finally at 2:00- FOMC Meeting Notes. Lots of fun for everyone!

























Douala found this video, enjoy!

Bits and pieces – no reason…

Why should I trade one tyrant three thousand miles away for three thousand tyrants one mile away? An elected legislature can trample a man's rights as easily as a king can.

What would you do if they destroyed your home, threatened your family. Where would you draw the line?

 

Although the constitution **** was never officially repealed, the legal measures taken by the **** government in February and March ****, commonly known as ***** ("coordination") meant that the government could legislate contrary to the constitution. The constitution became irrelevant, therefore **** is usually seen as the end of the **** Republic and the beginning of *****.

 

 

I love that propaganda cartoon, modern crap is not that convincing.

“Cold War cartoon aimed at American workers with the objective of convincing them of their good fortune.”

Let me translate what they say in this timeless piece: “ We are number one and you are number one, because number 2 and number 3 and number 25 and number 174 are all devastated after the war and we will call ourselves number one even thou there is none else to step up to the plate and beside – we got all their gold now”

OY…

 

 

 

 

 

Now – what we started from – without omissions:

Although the constitution of 1919 was never officially repealed, the legal measures taken by the Nazi government in February and March 1933, commonly known as Gleichschaltung ("coordination") meant that the government could legislate contrary to the constitution. The constitution became irrelevant, therefore 1933 is usually seen as the end of the Weimar Republic and the beginning of Hitler's "Third Reich".

 

Back to ongoing recession…

So, how do we fight recession?

Since I am not a financial advisor I can only give you an advise of a common sense:

 

Stop buying cereals – why would you pay $5 for the box of “nothing with some sugar” which cost 5c to make?

 

On a positive note – you can use money you saved to order customized M&Ms at ****.com with touchy sign “SUCK MY M&M”

 

Can you just imagine how they rape you on the price of the carpet itself if they promise to do full house install for $35???

 

Now back to market talk… on the second thought – forget market tonight.

 

Have some fun (complements of Rhae and Karl Denninger)

 

Weekend at DDT's

Great week everybody! Now it's the weekend, and I'm sure we'll all shuffle in between now and Monday with offerings of good tidings for the week ahead, but for now just a big thank you for all of the hard work that kept us all on the straight and narrow (if that's possible with this crew.) What you see to your left is the hard work and sharing that goes into trading this market day in and day out - every one of those pictures tells a story to guide our way. You can't have a team of good traders with one person to play, and I know this is what David envisioned this blog to be ... so a huge thank you to all of you! See you later and enjoy your weekend to the hilt! Work hard, play hard. ~Keirsten


Edit to add this chart from Humble Student:
"

The circles on this image is Fib arc from 1987 low to the high of internet bubble.

a. The low of internet bubble is on 38.2% arc.

b. S&P 1576 high is on 38.2% arc.

b. 666 low is on 61.8% arc.

Therefore, the trend line from Oct. 1987 Black Friday to the low of internet bubble is the resistance right now."

Saturday Edit: Chart on INDU and I updated the data on my Long-term Mutual Fund Money Flow graph.

Balancing Act

Here we are at another OPEX Friday, and so far it's been slow but steady, with no major economic news announcements, unless you count FDIC Friday after the bell, and that won't be moving this tape either way. But we remain alert, because there are some interesting areas of support in play, not only on the index charts, but the leaders as well. As noted by DDT last evening, even if you only trade one thing, keep a close eye on the others for further clues. So far we've had the RUT and COMPQ leading us down, but that could flip at any given moment. It didn't hurt the shorts to have the entire hard drive sector downgraded yesterday... My own "guess" is we're a wee bit oversold here, but that might not define the rest of the day's price action, so I'm using extreme caution to pick my poison, and I hope you all do too. Oversold/overbought has meant squat for the last several months. As I mentioned in chat earlier, Centrifugal wrote an excellent piece last evening on following your own analysis and doing your own heavy lifting basically, and truer words were never written. The benefit of this particular blog, IMO is that we share our vision and TA outlooks, but stay true to our own trading styles... as it should be. The added benefit is having other sets of eyes to point out hazards and learning and collaborating with each other, but that's not the same as blindly following someone else into a trade, regardless of the outcome.

I'm trading my own accounts like a bee in a hive today, so I'm sharing charts from Alpha and Zig Zag, with basically the same idea in mind. The regular game for the last several months also includes moving up and around those EMAs as far as I can see, with a lot of push/pull nearby. Monday's economic news is Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM EST and a treasury auction.

Good trading going into the afternoon session! A little something different that was shared with me by Shadow Trader for your listening pleasure below. Enjoy!

Alpha's EW









Zig Zag's SPX